Risk Evaluation and Prevention of Soybean Prodution in China
Being China’s main soybean productive area, Heilongjiang annual soybean output is about one third of the national total. Soybean composes main source of soybean peasants’income in most country of Heilongjiang. During 2003-2006, because of price falling and drought, water logging and other natural disasters, soybean production revenue decreased significantly, resulting in the soybean based households into difficulties. To stabilize and improve the income of soybean producers has drawn attentions of all levels of governments, and institutions. From the perspective of risk, this study explores the reasons for the fluctuations not only soybean output but also its revenue, and provides useful information for the decision making in soybean production, risk control and increasing soybean producers’income.Taking Heilongjiang main soybean producing prefecture (city) Hailun, Keshan and Nenjiang as study area, categorizing three types of risk such as yield risk, price risk and income risk, this study systematically estimates and discriminates risks of soybean production. Drawing lessons from American experience, this study brings forward prevention strategy on soybean production risks in Hei Longjiang province. On aspect of yield, firstly, using expected yield model, this study calculates weather yield and statistic distributing. Secondly, adopting risk evaluation index, this study compares yield risk among Hailun, Keshan and Nenjiang. Finally, analyzing historical weather data corresponding to soybean yield, this study infers some indexes of drought, flood, and chilling damage on soybean production, and then finds out main weather disaster in above mentioned three areas. On aspect of price, this study constructs soybean production price’s conduction model; computes soybean production price elasticity of average income, rapeseed price, soybean supply per captia, and transportation sale cost; makes use of the model to explain soybean production price fluctuation during different phase; forecasts and analyses the factors that influence soybean price in the future. On aspect of income, this study brings forward expected soybean income model and method that can decompose income risk; calculates and compares soybean income risk among Hailun, Keshan and Nenjiang. And then accounts contribution ratio of soybean yield and price in different years. Besides, this study analyses the influence of soybean income fluctuation on different income level farmers.Quantification analysis showed that: Both Hailun, Keshan, and Nenjiang per unit area output is significantly affected by natural risks, bearing an average of one giant natural disaster every three years, the major climate disasters include drought, flood, and chilling damage. Compared with corn or rice, Heilongjiang soybean price fluctuation has been greater. After soybean market deregulation, price volatility fluctuated significantly, and average annual fluctuation is around 7 percent. In the future, the soybean price will be mainly affected by international factors. Therefore, price risk management should focus on the future market to prevent the price risk. In the three areas, soybean real incomes are lower than the expected at the half years, and the average income per Mu lowers distinctly than the expected income. Three areas belong to the region of high income risk. Under all other conditions remaining constant, increasing cultivation income by raising both yield and price can significantly increase the income of rural residents , and reduce the number of low income peasants.